Live on Robinhood Chain mainnet
Will NVDA close UP today? We’re opening that market on every Robinhood Stock Token: UP or DOWN, in USDG, settled by Chainlink, paying more to whoever calls it first.
Call it early. Get paid more.
Published researchThe Vested Parimutuel · Hunch Research, 2nd edition, Sep 202602The opportunity
Source: Pew Research Center, data from The Block, May and Sep 2026
$156MRobinhood’s event-contract revenue in one quarter
Q2 2026, more than 10× a year earlier, on a record 13.6 billion contracts.
Source: Robinhood Q2 2026 results, Jul 30, 2026
4×Tokenized stocks, more than quadrupled in 2026
About $0.7B in January to more than $3B by late September.
Source: TokenPost, Sep 2026
$686MUSDG on Robinhood Chain, the dollar Hunch settles in
Held by 386,874 addresses, one signature away from a Hunch market.
Source: Read on chain 4663 and Blockscout, Sep 27, 2026
03The problem
An options chain
65%
of S&P 500 options volume is now same-day
The daily bet on stocks exists. Placing it takes a strike, an expiry, the greeks and a spread.
Source: Cboe, May 2026
A prediction market
9 in 10
dollars go to sports, crypto and politics
91% of Kalshi’s volume and 90% of Polymarket’s. Stocks share what is left with everything else.
Source: Pew Research Center, data from The Block, Jul 2024 to Apr 2026
A long-tail market
70%
of Polymarket’s markets never reach $10K
Listed, then left empty: 45,000 closed without a single trade.
Source: CNBC analysis of Polymarket, 2021 to May 2026
The appetite for a quick call on a stock is proven. Nobody serves it simply.
04Why it stays broken
Order booksKalshi, Polymarket
Will TSLA close UP today?0 quotes
Waiting for a market maker
Someone has to quote both sides of every market. Market makers show up for the Super Bowl and the Fed, not for TSLA on a Thursday.
PoolsTote, most on-chain pools
Tue 9:35 amUP
Called it at the open
2.12×per dollar
Fri 3:55 pmUP
Five minutes before the bell
2.12×per dollar
Every winner is paid the same multiple, so the smart move is to wait, and nobody goes first. Operators close betting early to stop the snipers.
70.1%of the losing pool went to winners who arrived in the last 10% of a market (median, replayed tape)
Both are cold-start problems. Pay whoever goes first, and any market can open itself.
05Our insight
Made-up bettors, the contract’s exact arithmetic: seed 10 / 10 USDG, five bets, NVDA closes up.
Our settlement rule, the Vested Parimutuel, pays every new stake straight to the bettors already on the other side.
06The research
Hunch Research2nd edition, Sep 2026
The Vested Parimutuel
Settling prediction markets by time priority of capital at risk
Raj Karia
playhunch.xyz/vpm-whitepaper
70.1% → 0.08%
of the losing pool taken by winners who arrive in the last 10% of a market
An ordinary pool, then ours. Median over 5,173 replayed markets.
0 of 5,173
replayed markets where the opening seed lost money
Median return +248%. Why we can open every ticker, every session.
Seven properties, each provedMatched exactly by our mainnet settler on all 118 conformance vectors
Replayed tape: Hunch’s four-week paper-money tournament, where most traders were agents deployed by participants (§13.4).
07The product
A same-day option, minus the options chain.
Will TSLA close UP today? Will NVDA finish the week UP? Daily and weekly markets on NVDA, TSLA, AAPL and COIN.
Fund with USDC from Arbitrum or Base and it lands as USDG. One signature; Hunch pays the gas.
Chainlink’s prices at the opening and closing bell decide it. Winners are paid automatically; a stale price refunds everyone.
Will NVDA close UP today?
Opening bell $225.66 · 05:42:10 to the bell
Refunded in full if the price doesn’t move or a feed goes stale.
08More from Hunch
The stock markets are our newest venue. Hunch Cup and Bazaar already run on our production engine on Base.
Hunch Cup
cup.playhunch.xyzA free, four-week trading tournament
The same live markets as playhunch.xyz, traded with free paper USDC on a public leaderboard. Anyone could play, or deploy an agent to play for them.
Why it mattersIt proved our engine at a million trades, and its tape is the one our paper replays.
Bazaar
bazaar.playhunch.xyzPrediction markets anyone can open
Anyone, a person or an agent, opens a market on any question. The creator resolves it, and their record is public: what they resolved, what they missed and what they hold.
Why it mattersIt reaches the questions no data feed can settle, and pays creators to bring the bettors.
09Traction
Robinhood Chain mainnet
Live since Oct 2
Daily and weekly markets in USDG, settled by Chainlink.
NVDATSLAAAPLCOIN
78,501
markets opened and settled by our own resolvers
About 20 market types, automatic resolution and payout, no human in the loop.
1,034,149
trades in the four-week Hunch Cup
Across 58,341 markets, 99.5% settled automatically. Paper USDC: our load test.
Proof of conceptReal USDC on Base
119real-USDC bets
28bettors
69markets
$931paid out to 21 wallets
28bets placed by Bankr’s agents
They found our public API and wired it in themselves, before our teams had ever spoken.
SDKs on npm and PyPI34-tool MCP serverBankr skills in the BankrBot catalogx402 payments for agentsHunch production on Base, Sep 29, 2026. Resolver-run markets prove the engine, not demand.
10Business model
2%
of winners’ gains, at settlement
What 1% of volume is worthIllustration, not a forecast
For scale: Kalshi and Polymarket traded $53B in July 2026, and Robinhood made $156M from event contracts in one quarter. Our unit economics will be reported from chain data after the first month of markets.
11Competition
Why we win the long tail
01A published rule, not a subsidy
Our paper’s rule pays whoever goes first, and proves our opening seed can’t lose. The thousandth market costs what the first did.
02Already running
Our engine has settled 78,501 markets since May, and the rule is live on Robinhood Chain mainnet.
03Built for agents too
SDKs, a 34-tool MCP server and x402 payments. Bankr’s agents found our API and bet on their own.
12Where this goes
A rule that lets any market open itself can list what no market maker would. Robinhood Chain gives us the prices, the dollars and the holders to start.
Today
4
Stock Tokens, live
Daily and weekly UP or DOWN on NVDA, TSLA, AAPL and COIN, on Robinhood Chain mainnet.
In six months
36
Every priced Stock Token
Every Stock Token with a Chainlink price, every session and every weekend. Ranges and earnings weeks.
2027
~200
Every token, every agent
Every Stock Token on the chain, then crypto, commodities and indices. An API so agents trade it too.
The endgame
∞
A live price on what happens next
The market’s answer to any question with a data feed, at any hour, even when the exchange is closed.
13Team
Two founders, full time. Three products shipped together, a prediction market run since May, and the paper Hunch settles on. Based in Bengaluru. Bootstrapped: nothing raised.
Raj Karia
Co-founder & CEOFull time
linkedin.com/in/raj-karia
Author of The Vested Parimutuel. 8 years in crypto, three products taken from zero to real users.
Prachi Sahani
Co-founder & CTOFull time
linkedin.com/in/prachi-sahani
7 years full stack, from consumer scale to safety-critical fleets.
14The raise
Month 1
Every Stock Token, every session
Month 3
Deeper markets, more takers
Month 6
A reference, not just a venue
Use of funds
15Thank you
Let’s talk
The round, a walkthrough of the live venue, or the paper: reach me directly.
Raj Karia
Co-founder & CEO, Hunch
Slide 1 of 15: Hunch