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Proof

Verify it yourself

Every number on this page comes from a chain read or links to one. Nothing here is typed in, and nothing that has not happened yet is shown as if it had.

Read from Robinhood Chain at Sun Oct 4, 8:01 am ET. The same data as JSON: /api/proof.

Live counters

Read from the chain, each linked to the call or query it came from. Hunch's own wallets are excluded from bettors and shown separately.

Markets opened
2
factory.listingCount()
Markets settled
0
getMarket(id).status for every listingResolved UP or DOWN.
Markets refunded
0
getMarket(id).status for every listingFlat, stale or paused prices, and the refund drill.
Distinct bettors
0
positions(id).owner for every marketPositions(id)Excludes Hunch's own wallets (the lister, the keeper and the Safe).
Hunch's own bets
0
positions(id) owned by the lister, keeper or SafeShown separately and never counted as bettors. Opening seeds are not bets.
USDG staked by bettors
0.00 USDG
sum of positions(id).offered
USDG paid to bettors
0.00 USDG
claimed positions, settlement mathWinnings and refunded stakes after the fee.
Fees swept to the treasury
0.00 USDG
fees taken minus feesAccrued(USDG)

Contracts

Each address links to Blockscout, where the verified source can be read. There are no upgradeable proxies.

Price feeds

Chainlink's standard price feeds for each Robinhood Stock Token on chain 4663. They are the only input a settlement reads.

The Safe

Safe address

0x5866…F336

Signatures required

2 of 3

Open in the Safe app

app.safe.global

One Safe is the guardian and treasury of the betting contract and the owner of the market factory. It can pause and resume new bets and new markets (a pauser key it names can only pause) and choose which price feeds and which listing wallet are allowed. It cannot move a stake, set a price, or stop claims, refunds or settlement. The threshold is read on-chain, not typed here.

Who can do what

Stated once, verbatim, as the contracts enforce it. There is no owner of the betting contract, no upgrade, and no price input anywhere.

  • Safe (guardian of HunchVPM)

    Can
    pause and resume new entries and new markets; name or remove the pauser
    Cannot
    pause or block claims, refunds, resolution; move any stake; set any price

  • Pauser (one key the Safe names)

    Can
    pause new entries and new markets
    Cannot
    resume them; anything else

  • Safe (owner of factory)

    Can
    allow-list a feed, its Stock Token and its staleness bounds; add/remove an opener
    Cannot
    change a listed market's feed, times, bounds, seed, fee or caps

  • Opener (keeper hot wallet)

    Can
    list a new market through the factory (the only creator HunchVPM accepts), paying the seed itself; owns the seed legs it paid for
    Cannot
    change or close an existing market; touch anyone else's position

  • Anyone

    Can
    resolve with the two proven rounds; void on proven staleness, a proven out-of-range price or a 24 h oracle pause; relay a bettor's signed entry; deliver claims and refunds to owners; sweep fees to the treasury
    Cannot
    choose the outcome; send anyone's funds anywhere but to their owner

  • StockRoundResolver

    Can
    settle its registered markets per the spec
    Cannot
    anything else (it has no owner)

Settled markets

Each market names the two Chainlink rounds that decided it. Anyone can check them, or settle a market themselves: see resolve it yourself.

No market has settled yet

Every settled market will be listed here with the two Chainlink rounds that decided it, both prices, the settlement transaction, how many bets it held and what it paid out.

Refund drill

The safety proof: a market whose price could not be trusted, refunded to every bettor on-chain.

Planned: a market built to refund

One labelled market uses Friday’s opening price and a closing time of 2:00 am ET on Saturday, when Chainlink’s stock prices do not update, with a one-hour age limit. The closing price is then provably too old, so anyone can refund it, and every bet, Hunch’s opening seed included, comes back in full.

Its refund transaction and every refund to every bettor will be listed here once it runs.

Fees swept

No fees swept yet

Fees are 2% of winners’ gains. Anyone can sweep them to the treasury Safe; each sweep will be listed here with its transaction.